Umpqua women jump back to No. 1

NWAC Women's Basketball

Standings | Statistics | Results | Schedule | Polls | Previous Rankings

When we last spoke, two questions were posed: Can Umpqua keep up their good form up in Southern Region play, and will Spokane continue to lead the East? Both have been answered strongly, and in completely different directions. At 18-2, the Umpqua Riverhawks have the best record in the league, and haven't lost to an NWAC team since late November. Spokane, on the other hand, has lost four of their first five games against Eastern Region teams, and now sit near the bottom of the region standings.

Plenty of other things have flip-flopped, as well. Centralia finally lost to a Western Region foe, and Clackamas has struggled after an excellent start to their non-league schedule. Oh, and Columbia Basin is sending in heart-stopping performances left and right, and the Hawks have now jumped on top of the Eastern Region. Boom.

In some housekeeping news, both S. Puget Sound and Grays Harbor have unveiled awesome new logos, keeping with a trend which has seen new insignias from Umpqua, Shoreline, Green River and Clark in recent years. 

This edition of the Power Rankings continues the use of offensive efficiency numbers, which help to gage exactly what a team does with the possessions they're given, and how fast they do it. Bellevue is the slowest among the top eight, with Columbia Basin and Edmonds tying for the fast-paced honors. From this point forward, we'll upload a separate spreadsheet with each set of rankings so older sets can be used for reference. 

[Get the top 16 teams]

Pace is determined by taking a team's total points and dividing it by their average points-per-possession to get the number of possessions they've played. Total possessions divided by games is what the "pace" number is.

Offensive efficiency is what a team would score if they played at the average pace of the top-16 teams, which is 67 possessions per game. Current average points are in parenthesis next to each ranked team's efficiency numbers.

Updated coaches rankings, released on Jan. 22, have been posted under each team's previous ratings. You can see the full coaches poll here.

                                                                                                                        

1. Umpqua (18-2, 5-0 South)
Previous ranking: No. 4, No. 1 Coaches
Pace: 69 | Offensive Efficiency: 79.06 (81)
Coaches: No. 2

Consider this a makeup call for dropping Umpqua in the last set, but regardless of my guilty concience, the Riverhawks wholly deserve their re-ascent to the top of the rankings. First the boring numbers: They continue to lead the league in efficiency now that region play has begun, and they still shoot a sparkling 48% from the field. The turnover percentage is a little higher than it should be, but it hasn't mattered in the last seven games — all victories. Umpqua has already seen the meat of the brutal Southern Region schedule, having beaten No. 3 Lane 69-61 [box] and former No. 2 Clackamas in a 71-48 blowout [box]. The margin of victory over Clackamas could have been due to poor shooting, but not even Clackamas can make Clackamas shoot 18% from the field. The Riverhawks held Lane under 40% shooting, and trailed at halftime before outscoring the Titans by 10 in the second half. One caveat: Umpqua still has to travel to Lane, Clackamas and Chemeketa, which are difficult places to play regardless of their opponents record.

                                                                                                                         

2. Columbia Basin (13-6, 5-0 East)
Previous ranking: Unranked, Unranked coaches
Pace: 74 | Offensive Efficiency: 75.71 (84)
Coaches: No. 5

The Hawks might be the newly anointed heartthrob-queens of the league, but regardless of their methods they have now charged to the top of the Eastern Region standings with seven consecutive victories. This is all following a 20-point loss to Lane back in late December, and it seems to have ignited something special in Columbia Basin. First came a 10-point victory over Treasure Valley in the region opener, followed by a game in which they were less efficient, had fewer rebounds, fewer points off turnovers and fewer points off the bench, and still managed to come from behind and beat Wenatchee Valley 77-76 [box]. A few days later, the Hawks came from 11 down at halftime to force overtime with Big Bend, topping the Runnin' Viks 88-86 [box] behind a game-high 27 points from Marissa Caballero. Oh, and the next outing? Columbia Basin trailed Spokane by two at the break, and came back to win it 64-63 [box]. Their luck will run out eventually, but winning this many close games against good opponents does massive things for the Hawks' confidence, especially when the tournament rolls around to their back yard in Kennewick. They're the fastest team in the league, are very efficient and take very good care of the ball. It all translates to the league's highest scoring average, but the Hawks might want to be sure people with heart conditions stop coming to games.

                                                                                                                         

3. Lane (16-4, 3-1 South)
Previous ranking: No. 6, No. 5 Coaches
Pace: 68 | Offensive Efficiency: 73.03 (74)
Coaches: No. 4

The better Lane's 20-point whipping of Columbia Basin looks, the worse their 19-point loss to Wenatchee Valley stinks. That said, the Titans have shown they're able to hang right with No. 1 Umpqua, something no other NWAC team has been able to do since late November. In both games, it's been a tale of two halves. The first 20 minutes have been close both times, only to see Lane fade down the stretch and fall while staying within striking distance. It's a good example of what can happen when Lane keeps their turnover numbers down, and they've managed to cut miscues by 45% in comparison to their season average of 20 per game. If Lane manages to play such a clean game the rest of the way, they'll have a solid chance in the Southern Region, especially because the remaining game with Umpqua isn't in Roseburg, it's in Eugene. 

                                                                                                                         

4. Centralia (17-3, 6-1 West)
Previous ranking: No. 1, No. 2 Coaches
Pace: 63 | Offensive Efficiency: 71.69 (67)
Coaches: No. 1

Centralia's place as the top team in the league was based on an excellent non-league schedule with the assumption that they'd breeze through the Western Region and emerge pristine and perfect. One problem: They just got blown out by Lower Columbia 63-47 [box]. Now, this could be a sign that Centralia isn't alone in the West as previously assumed, and that might turn out to be a good thing — if the Blazers can top Lower Columbia in the rematch. It's unlikely that Centralia will repeat their dismal three-point shooting performance in the second match up, as so far region play has gone exactly as expected with the Red-Devil'ed exception. They've beaten their other six opponents by an average of 29 points each, including 47-point wins over Tacoma and Grays Harbor and won't see Lower Columbia until Feb. 25 — this time at home.

                                                                                                                         


5. Bellevue (14-6, 5-0 North)
Previous ranking: Unranked, Unranked Coaches
Pace: 64 | Offensive Efficiency: 68.34 (65)
Coaches: No. 8

It's no secret that the Northern Region isn't the deepest league in the NWAC, but taking the first five games of region play and their last seven overall has been enough to bump Bellevue up and get the 'Dogs noticed. And it hasn't so much been who they've beaten, but how it's been done. They took the league's least efficient team by 53 points [box] as an opener for the Northern Region simply to set themselves at the top of the division, but have also won a pair of close battles with challengers in Skagit Valley [box] and Peninsula [box]. And while Bellevue has played tight games with a handful of the NWAC's top teams, there are several troubling statistics which will continually drag the Bulldogs down. Firstly, they're solidly in the bottom-half of the league in terms of shooting percentage at 38% overall. Secondly, a low shooting percentage works if a team plays at a quick pace, and Bellevue simply doesn't. They're actually out of the top-16 teams in terms of offensive efficiency, but still have a solid chance to win the North and get a good seed in the first round.

                                                                                                                         

6. Lower Columbia (14-7, 5-0 West)
Previous ranking: Unranked, Unranked Coaches
Pace: 69 | Offensive Efficiency: 74.37 (77)
Coaches: No. 7

It's not often that the Western Region will get two teams in the top eight, but as I've mentioned before, this system is about what has happened lately. And for Lower Columbia, "lately" has been seven consecutive wins, including a huge win over No. 4 Centralia — 63-47 [box] back on Jan. 24. It was at home in Longview, but it's a major confidence booster and goes an awfully long way toward their first region title since the 2010-11 season. With the win over Centralia, they now have victories over all of the other teams in the top half of the west, including 12-point wins over Clark [box] and Highline [box]. The only unnerving fact is that Lower Columbia will have to face all three opponents on the road in the second half of the Western Region schedule, and falling to second in their region could mean a major difference in their seed at the championship tournament.

                                                                                                                         

7. Walla Walla (13-4, 4-1 East)
Previous ranking: No. 8, No. 7 Coaches
Pace: 60 | Offensive Efficiency: 75.71 (68)
Coaches: No. 3

For the most part, Walla Walla has managed to escape the meat-grinder through the first five games of Eastern Region play. Key words being "for the most part." Usher in their last contest, a 73-58 loss to Big Bend [box] which knocked Dub-Dub from top-five to seventh. And it's not to say the East isn't relatively strong from top to bottom, but Walla Walla lost to one of only two Eastern Region teams with a losing record. All that said, the saving grace for the Warriors has been the other four games, specifically a 16-point win [box] over Wenatchee Valley and a solid victory over Spokane [box]. The real test for Walla Walla, which is still top-four in efficiency, will be their next two games. They take on a spiraling Treasure Valley team, then face No. 2 Columbia Basin — and both on the road.


                                                                                                                         

8. Peninsula (14-7, 4-1 North)
Previous ranking: Unranked, Unranked Coaches
Pace: 68 | Offensive Efficiency: 73.7 (75)
Coaches: No. 6

Peninsula has made a solid argument for themselves this season, especially after playing No. 5 Bellevue to a close five-point loss [box] earlier this week. The most impressive stretch for the Pirates, though, came in the midst of their non-league schedule. They lost to Wenatchee Valley by one in the season opener, and proceeded to win five games in a row, a streak which included wins over No. 2 Columbia Basin, No. 7 Walla Walla, and previous No. 2 Clackamas. Peninsula might deserve to be a little higher in the rankings with all their non-league successes outweighing a relatively weak Northern Region, and as they continue to win region games, their stock will rise. The game on Jan. 28 on the road at Skagit Valley is a big one. Not only would it give Peninsula an edge for second in the region standings, but it gives the Pirates a confidence bump heading into a softer part of the schedule.

                                                                                                                        

Bellevue men still clinging to top spot

NWAC Men's Basketball

Standings | Statistics | Results | Schedule | Polls | Previous Rankings

We'll get to it shortly, but the league saw an absolutely fantastic overtime showdown between No. 1 Bellevue and No. 2 Edmonds back on Jan. 21 that is too hard to keep out of the intro and both sets of rankings. As Bellevue — the slower and more efficient of the pair of heavyweights — came out with the victory, it brings to mind a piece written several years ago on what it takes to win at the upcoming tournament. Portland wowed viewers last spring by getting hot and pulling together a group of unbelievable talent at the right time, but it seems the slow-paced and defensively-minded teams have an edge when so many games are crammed back-to-back. 

Once again, remember that these rankings are most often a "what have you done for me lately" grouping of thoughts, and teams are more likely to jump around than in the coaches poll. 

In some housekeeping news, both S. Puget Sound and Grays Harbor have unveiled awesome new logos, keeping with a trend which has seen new insignias from Umpqua, Shoreline, Green River and Clark in recent years. 

This edition of the Power Rankings continues the use of offensive efficiency numbers, which help to gage exactly what a team does with the possessions they're given, and how fast they do it. Bellevue is the slowest among the top eight, with Columbia Basin and Edmonds tying for the fast-paced honors. From this point forward, we'll upload a separate spreadsheet with each set of rankings so older sets can be used for reference. 

[Get the top 16 teams]

Pace is determined by taking a team's total points and dividing it by their average points-per-possession to get the number of possessions they've played. Total possessions divided by games is what the "pace" number is.

Offensive efficiency is what a team would score if they played at the average pace of the top-16 teams, which is 67 possessions per game. Current average points are in parenthesis next to each ranked team's efficiency numbers.

Updated coaches rankings, released on Jan. 22, have been posted under each team's previous ratings. You can see the full coaches poll here.

                                                                                                                         

1. Bellevue (18-2, 5-0 North)
Pace: 59 | Offensive Efficiency: 83.85 (76)
Previous ranking: No. 1, No. 1 Coaches
Coaches: No. 1

This is exactly the type of match up I like to see in the results: Two highly-ranked teams in a tight game with the region lead up for grabs. Such were the stakes. Bellevue won round No. 1 with Edmonds, winning 84-82 in overtime [box] in what I'm thinking will be a huge victory come tournament time. It gives Bellevue a little extra room atop the Northern Region standings, possibly getting Bellevue out of a more difficult first-round match up. It also is a major confidence booster, and proves that the Bulldogs have the mental fortitude to hang on and win a nail-biter despite being outscored down the stretch. Four Bellevue players scored in double figures, led by 19 from Don Holub. What will be more interesting will be how the rematch plays out on Feb. 18, when Bellevue and Edmonds could meet in another top-two showdown. Bellevue remains as the slowest-paced team in the rankings at 59 possessions a game, but is efficient with their chances regardless of their pedestrian shooting percentage.

                                                                                                                          

2. Edmonds (16-4, 4-1 North)
Pace: 70 | Offensive Efficiency: 78 (84)
Previous ranking: No. 2, No. 2 Coaches

Coaches: No. 3

And now the other side of that huge game in Bellevue. I cover high school athletics full time now, and there are times where I wonder how different the conversation would go if I were talking with a different coach but asking the same questions. This is one of those instances. While Bellevue basically played their game — almost exactly their average regulation points and shooting percentage — Edmonds was caught once again by their inability to score the basketball. They still play somewhat quickly, and their points per possession stat has jumped in the last several weeks, but shooting 37% from the field against a slow-it-down team simply won't bring about wins. The Tritons seem to have fixed some of their problems on offense, and have picked up the scoring pace and shooting percentage, and it seems they're now on the level with No. 1 Bellevue, at least for now. The rematch in late February will be fascinating, and could be for the region title.

                                                                                                                         

3. Clark (13-5, 6-1 West)
Pace: 63 | Offensive Efficiency: 85.15 (82)

Previous ranking: No. 6, No. 6 Coaches

Coaches: No. 5

The Penguins have lost just once in their last six games, a tight, anybody-can-win-this contest with Lower Columbia in which Clark was outscored by two in each half and lost 80-76 [box]. Since then they've been on a roll, pasting four of the five opponents on their current five-game winning streak. The largest such victory was a 106-66 thumping [box] of South Puget Sound (they have an awesome new logo) on Jan. 24. The sparkling stat from this sizzling contest was in the turnover column: Clark scored a whopping 33 points of SPSCC's 18 turnovers. The Penguins are fourth in the NWAC in steals at 10.78 per game, and have made a living on the break. It's part of what helps Clark reach the league average in points while playing at a slightly lower than average pace — layups are usually a pretty high-percentage shot. Like Edmonds and Bellevue, the Penguins have a big game on the horizon in a visit from No. 8 Highline, who has won four in a row and technically leads the Western Region.

                                                                                                                        

4. Columbia Basin (11-8, 4-1 East)
Pace: 70 | Offensive Efficiency: 79.3 (86)

Previous ranking: No. 7, Unranked Coaches

Coaches: Unranked

I was a little uneasy in ranking Columbia Basin a few weeks ago, bringing them into the rankings for the first time this season in seventh. At the time, the question was whether their victory over then-No. 3 Big Bend was a fluke, but 10 wins in their last 11 games make things seem as though that's not at all the case. Their one trip-up, and this might have Wenatchee fans upset, was an 86-69 loss [box] to the Knights back on Jan. 14. The Hawks got outscored by 18 from beyond the arc in that game, which is an ironic taste of their own medicine. Columbia Basin shoots from distance at a pretty decent clip, and when they get rolling, well... they do things like blowing the doors off a fast-paced Spokane team to the tune of 110-95 [box]. CBC hit 15 three-pointers in that game, six more than usual, and nailed 13 in their 109-103 victory [box] over Yakima Valley. Will the hot shooting hold for the rest of the season? Maybe. Will the hot shooting continue once they step into the cavernous Toyota Center? Probably not. Either way, this team is hot.

                                                                                                                         

5. Wenatchee Valley (14-6, 3-2 East)
Pace: 62 | Offensive Efficiency: 79.3 (86)

Previous ranking: No. 4, No. 4 Coaches

Coaches: No. 2

Two losses in their last two games would normally drop the Knights further than one spot, but I'll keep them there because of how they kicked off the Eastern Region run. Wenatchee had arguably the most difficult early stretch of any of the ranked teams: Hosting Spokane, traveling to Columbia Basin and hosting Walla Walla, all ending in wins for Wenatchee. Then they faded in the second half and lost to unranked Treasure Valley and unranked Blue Mountain. What's interesting, though, is that in both games the Knights shot FAR below their average number of free throws. In the Blue Mountain game back on Dec. 31, for instance, Wenatchee Valley shot 38 times from the charity stripe. On Jan. 24 in an 86-76 loss [box] they shot 15 free throws. Though they've sped things up in the last few weeks, the Knights still play as one of the slowest-paced teams in the top-16. That means that they need high effieciency (and plenty of free-throws and good shooting percentages) to keep up with the other faster-paced teams in their region. I'll keep WVC in fifth for now, but this next stretch will be telling: they play Big Bend on Jan. 28, and then will have rematches with Spokane and Columbia Basin in the coming weeks.

                                                                                                                          

6. Big Bend (16-5, 4-1 East)
Pace: 64 | Offensive Efficiency: 81.25 (80)

Previous ranking: No. 3, No. 3 Coaches
Coaches: No. 7

In the last set of rankings, I talked about how Big Bend turns the ball over a little more than they should, and I called their upcoming league game with then-No. 7 Columbia Basin a "good challenge." Big Bend, to their credit, cleaned up the turnover act considerably. In the first match up, they had 16 miscues. In the second, just 13. It made for a big difference in the competitiveness of the game, but Columbia Basin still managed to pull out an 85-84 victory [box] despite winning the turnover battle by seven. The Runnin' Viks also nearly let a win slip through their fingers in a battle with Blue Mountain (5-12, 1-4 East) back on Jan. 16. They held an 11-point lead at halftime, but were forced to hold on and win a low-scoring 68-66 game [box] at home, a result which is surprising given the difference in record and the improved turnover statistics. Coming up, though, they'll have a chance to prove themselves and jump back toward the top of the rankings in a trip to take on Wenatchee Valley, with whom they're almost neck-and-neck in points per possession and pace.

                                                                                                                         

7. Highline (14-5, 6-1 West)
Pace: 66 | Offensive Efficiency: 79.3 (80)

Previous ranking: Unranked, No. 5 Coaches
Coaches: No. 6

It's always seemed a little unfair to keep Highline out of the top eight, given that they've led the Western Region for much of the season thus far. The reason? They don't have much by way of signature victories, and have lost many of the bigger games they've played in. And while they play in a relatively weak division (five of the Western teams are below .500), picking up five wins in a row is enough to get just about anybody noticed, and for their efforts they'll get a shot at taking down No. 3 Clark this week — at at home. This is a big chance for Highline to prove they belong in the discussion and erase a few ugly losses from earlier this year before the Western Region schedule takes its toll.

                                                                                                                         

8. Chemeketa (14-6, 5-0 South)

Pace: 67 | Offensive Efficiency: 83.3 (87)
Previous ranking: No. 8, No. 8 Coaches

Coaches: No. 4

Chemeketa's overall offensive pace has dropped a little in the last few weeks, but the Storm are on their best run of the season: Eight straight victories, including the first five games of the Southern Region schedule. Given, as plenty of readers have trumpeted over the years, the South isn't the strongest region in the NWAC, but it has produced two title teams in the last two years and five champions in the last eight seasons. Might it be that all the banging and moving and shaking in the South preps teams for the rigors of the championship tournament? Chemeketa shoots a decent percentage from the field, and has continued their unreal free-throw numbers to the tune of 27 attempts per game. At this point the Storm look like frontrunners in the Southern Region, but they'll need to keep a sharp eye out for an effecient and slow-paced Umpqua team, as well as Clackamas — hate me, c'mon — as the Cougars often go on a hot streak late in the season.

                                                                                                                        

Bellevue men lead rankings into region play

NWAC Men's Basketball

Standings | Statistics | Results | Schedule | Polls | Previous Rankings

Last year we always assumed the Southern Region would shake itself out and, being stubborn, it never did. The South has always gotten flack for as long as these rankings have been a thing, and yet they've managed to capture two of the last four NWAC titles. Once again, it looks like the South is being its good ol' self, but the Western Region has joined in the fray. Neither region has a standout as of yet, with four teams legitimately in the mix at the start of region play.

The Northern and Eastern regions, however, are entirely different. Bellevue and Edmonds have emerged as frontrunners with entirely differing offensive styles in the Northern Region, while Big Bend, Wenatchee Valley and Spokane are clearly ahead of the remaining teams in the Eastern Region with Columbia Basin making a solid run at relevancy. 

In the last set, we used a beta system to rank a team's pace by adding and dividing and multiplying some numbers together and calling it good. The league has stepped forward and offered the actual possession stats, and we rolled out a new efficiency rating system last week with the women to fairly positive results. This edition [Get the top-16 teams] adds a few things, including a free-throws per game stat which helps to show exactly why certain teams can accomplish their high points-per-possession numbers.

Pace is determined by taking a team's total points and dividing it by their average points-per-possession to get the number of possessions they've played. Total possessions divided by games is what the "pace" number is.

Offensive efficiency is what a team would score if they played at the average pace of the top-16 teams, which is 67 possessions per game. Current average points are in parenthesis next to each ranked team's efficiency numbers.

From this point on, expect the rankings to be published about every two weeks on Sunday or Monday until the NWAC tournament arrives in early March. Coaches rankings, which were released on Jan. 8, can be found beneath each team's rating.

                                                                                                                         

1. Bellevue (13-2, 0-0 North)
Pace: 58 | Offensive Efficiency: 83.2 (74)
Previous ranking: No. 1, No. 2 Coaches
Coaches: No. 1

Over the last several seasons, we've seen Bellevue rack up a handful of solid seasons. They tied for first in a highly-contested Northern Region last year, marking the first season with at least a share of the region title since 2009-10. In each one of those successful years, the Bulldogs have only gotten past the first round of the tournament just one time, which begs the question: Is this finally the year for Bellevue? Among the top-16 teams in terms of efficiency, Bellevue plays with the slowest pace of just 58 possessions per game. They commit just 13 turnovers per game, an excellent job of scoring on the few possessions they DO have. It's a formula which tends to do well at the championship tournament,  which generally sees the slower, defensively-minded and efficient teams succeed. Coming up, they've got 5-8 Shoreline before they'll take on Olympic — the fastest-paced team at 72 possessions per contest.

                                                                                                                          

2. Edmonds (13-3, 0-0 North)
Pace: 72 | Offensive Efficiency: 76.05 (84)
Previous ranking: No. 4, Unranked Coaches

Coaches: No. 2

In the last set of rankings, we covered how Edmonds' low shooting percentage was killing their offensive efficiency. There are still several unsettling numbers which stick out for Edmonds, one of which is their three-point shooting: second-to-last in the league at a dismal 28 percent. Overall percentage is in the bottom third, which is why it's fairly amazing that Edmonds manages to score just over 84 points per game. The reason? Blinding speed and the second-best rebounding in the NWAC. Edmonds plays a full 14 possessions more than a team like No. 1 Bellevue, and actually takes better care of the ball. Much of the reason Edmonds gets so many extra chances is due to their ability to get out in the passing lanes, which gifts the Tritons an extra ten possessions on a nightly basis and has led to five consecutive victories — the second-longest streak in the league.

                                                                                                                         

3. Big Bend (12-4, 0-0 East)
Pace: 65 | Offensive Efficiency: 79.3 (79)

Previous ranking: No. 2, Unranked Coaches

Coaches: No. 3

Big Bend was on an impressive run before it was cut short in a 91-78 loss [box] to Columbia Basin, a loss which gives some interesting insight into a major weak spot in the Runnin' Vik's game: Turnovers. Big Bend had 26 of them, and while it's 10 higher than their game-by-game average, the Vikings still rank among the worst of the efficient teams in terms of turning over the rock. Imagine throwing the ball away on a quarter of a team's possessions, which is about where Big Bend sits. There's your background, now consider this: Big Bend still manages 79 points per game, and ranks ninth in offensive efficiency. It helps to be third in the league in three-pointers attempted, while shooting a somewhat decent percentage. One interesting thing to watch: Big Bend hosts Columbia Basin in a rematch on Jan. 21. CBC is also one of the hotter teams in the league, and should make for a good challenge.

                                                                                                                        

4. Wenatchee Valley (11-4, 0-0 East)
Pace: 60 | Offensive Efficiency: 81.9 (75)

Previous ranking: No. 3, No. 6 Coaches

Coaches: No. 4

The Knights are another slow-paced, but efficient team. They trail Bellevue with 60 possessions on a given night (see what I did there), and have almost identical numbers both on offense and defense. The Knights don't shoot an awful lot of three pointers, and they're not at the top of the list in field goal percentage. What Wenatchee Valley DOE do, and does extremely well, is get to the free-throw line. They're second in the league in free-throws per game at 25, which is impressive because the leader — Chemeketa at 28 — plays at a far quicker pace. The Knights only loss in this last section of games came on a night where they shot 13 percent from three-point range and were outscored 27-6 from beyond the arc and still only lost by three [box] to Grays Harbor. They'll have a fast-paced and efficient challenger in No. 5 Spokane in their next contest, and should the Knights manage to keep the pace slow and control things from the get-go, they'll have a chance to make a huge statement in the Eastern Region.

                                                                                                                         

5. Spokane (10-5, 0-0 East)
Pace: 69 | Offensive Efficiency: 88.4 (94)

Previous ranking: No. 6, No. 1 Coaches

Coaches: No. 7

A faster than average pace often doesn't always translate to an efficient outcome on the offensive end, but Spokane is different. They're far and away the best offensive team in the league at just over 94 points per game, and pace is only part of it. They run about 69 offensive possessions per night, and are about average in turnover-per-possession percentage. The difference is that the Sasquatch score on far more of those possessions than any other team in the league. The efficiency coefficient is a good way to balance, as it takes pace out of the equation and Spokane is still easily at the top of the list by a full four points. And unlike many of the other running teams in the league, Spokane is actually in the middle of the pack in steals and is able to hold opposing teams down on defense instead of games turning into a regular track meet.

                                                                                                                          

6. Clark (8-4, 1-0 West)
Pace: 64 | Offensive Efficiency: 81.9 (81)

Previous ranking: Unranked, No. 3 Coaches
Coaches: No. 6

With eight wins, Clark might look like a questionable choice to make the top eight, considering the three Western Region teams who have more wins. However, as we've discussed before, this is a set of rankings built on what teams have been up to lately, and Clark's resume of late has been a solid one. Something seems to have clicked after the Penguin's loss to Clackamas on Dec. 20, and Clark has won their last three contest by a considerable margin. Most impressive was a 78-58 [box] win over previous No. 5 Green River in which Clark muscled the Gators to a 47-29 rebound advantage and outscored Green River by 15 in second-chance points. Clark is the most efficient of the Western Region teams, and will only see one region foe who is better on the glass even though Clark is in the middle of the league pack in terms of boards. Unfortunately for Clark, their chance to prove themselves comes quickly: Lower Columbia — the only team from the West who has better boarding numbers — looms in the Western Region opener.

                                                                                                                         

7. Columbia Basin (7-7, 0-0 East)
Pace: 70 | Offensive Efficiency: 76.05 (83)

Previous ranking: Unranked, Unranked coaches
Coaches: Unranked

Another somewhat curious choice in place of a team like Highline or Umpqua, both of whom are leading their regions, Columbia Basin makes the list as simply the hottest team in the league at this point. They've picked up six in a row, two of which came against teams ranked in the last set. Green River was the first to fall victim back on Dec. 19, but CBC has also managed victories over Portland, Everett, Blue Mountain, and a 113-86 barn-burner [box] against Grays Harbor. The most impressive win, though, was their most recent. Columbia Basin shot a cool 11-22 from distance and picked up 26 turnovers against No. 3 Big Bend on New Years Eve, runnin' past the Runnin' Viks 91-78 [box]. It might have been a flash in the pan, but no one has been able to prove it for the last month.

                                                                                                                         

8. Chemeketa (9-6, 0-0 South)

Pace: 68 | Offensive Efficiency: 84.5 (88)
Previous ranking: No. 7, No. 7 (tie) Coaches

Coaches: No. 8

Every once in a while, my brain will catch a number that simply doesn't fit. Usually it's a mistake when data is entered into the efficiency spreadsheet, but in the case of Chemeketa's unreal free-throw numbers, it's reality. The Storm have shot 423 freebies through 15 games, at a clip of 28 attempts per game. They're not the lightning-quick (again, see what I did there?) Chemeketa team we've seen in the past, but they still manage nearly 88 points per game — good for second in the league behind No. 6 Spokane. And at 9-6, they're just a half-game behind Umpqua for the lead in the Southern Region, which looks like it might end up as much a clustered mess as it was last season. Getting to the line means drawing fouls. Drawing fouls means putting opponents in foul trouble, which forces opponents to change up rotations and put their big men on the bench.

                                                                                                                        

Centralia women finally ascend to top spot

NWAC Women's Basketball

Standings | Statistics | Results | Schedule | Polls | Previous Rankings

With the Holiday Tournaments behind us — and a host of fascinating results with them — we can begin to take a look at the upcoming region schedules. The South looks like it'll be a grudge match between Umpqua, Clackamas and Lane once again. Centralia looks awesome through their first 14 games of the year, and has a good chance of blowing through the Western Region, while Spokane, Wenatchee Valley, Treasure Valley and Walla Walla each have a shot in the East. 

We'll get to each of these match ups as the rankings roll on, but a few highlights from the last week: former No. 1 Umpqua got rolled by 39 points by Snow College, current No. 1 Centralia beat Snow College by two and Clackamas is having another one of those preseason runs with five in a row.

There are a few questions which stand out as we enter the next section of the year. Spokane looks like a leader in the East, but how will they stand up to decidedly tougher competition once they've had to run through the brutal Eastern Region schedule? Umpqua has lead us on several times over the past few years with great preseason play, only to fade as the season continues. Will they hold up their end of the bargain?

And lastly, we rolled out a new efficiency rating system last week with fairly positive results. This edition adds a few things, including a free-throws per game stat which helps to show exactly why certain teams can accomplish their high points-per-possession numbers.

Pace is determined by taking a team's total points and dividing it by their average points-per-possession to get the number of possessions they've played. Total possessions divided by games is what the "pace" number is.

Offensive efficiency is what a team would score if they played at the average pace of the top-16 teams, which is 67 possessions per game. Current average points are in parenthesis next to each ranked team's efficiency numbers.

From this point on, expect the rankings to be published about every two weeks on Sunday or Monday until the NWAC tournament arrives in early March. Updated coaches rankings, released Jan. 8, have been posted under each team's rating.

                                                                                                                        

1. Centralia (12-2, 1-0 West)
Previous ranking: No. 2, No. 4 Coaches
Pace: 62 | Offensive Efficiency: 73.7 (68)
Coaches: No. 2

I felt uncomfortable ranking Centralia second last week, but the Trailblazers backed up their ranking and did more than enough to add an extra spot to their standing in what will likely be the biggest test they'll see until the NWAC tournament in March. Centralia saw a seven-game winning streak snapped [box] by Juco power North Idaho — still the only team to beat Centralia this season — in the second round of the Lower Columbia Holiday Classic. What that did was set up the Trailblazers for a championship date (have a look at the bracket) with Snow College who had just finished rocking previous No. 1 Umpqua by nearly 40 points. Cue Urban Meyer saying: "Snow won by 40? Whew. I've gotta go, We've gotta go get ready." Halfway through Centralia's game with Snow, it looked like it might end up as ugly as Umpqua's meeting as the Trailblazers were shooting just 33% and had fallen behind 33-26. Then, the second half: Centralia outscored their competition by nine to win 52-50 [box]. If Centralia does well in region play, they could very well ride this one for the rest of the season.

                                                                                                                         

2. Clackamas (11-3, 0-0 South)
Previous ranking: No. 3, No. 3 Coaches
Pace: 71 | Offensive Efficiency: 78.39 (83)
Coaches: No. 3

At five games, Clackamas now has the longest active winning streak in the league. And as one of the fastest-paced and most efficient teams in the league, they have an offense which becomes more and more difficult to stop as a game goes on — which is exactly what managed to sting Yakima Valley in the first game of the new year for both squads. The Yaks actually had a one-point lead at the break, and had a 17-point edge in second-chance points and points off turnovers and still lost 88-84 [box] to a Clackamas team simply playing their game. The Cougars turned around and pounded the George Fox JV squad, and will have a stiff challenge ahead of them to kick off region play: No. 6 Lane looms in the first contest on Jan. 10.

                                                                                                                         

3. Spokane (11-4, 0-0 East) 
Previous ranking: No. 6, Unranked Coaches
Pace: 64 | Offensive Efficiency: 75.04 (72)
Coaches: No. 8

We're used to the usual suspects in the Eastern Region taking over at this point, but heading into region play, there's a new leader in the clubhouse. Spokane becomes the first Eastern team to reach double-digit wins, and has won eight of the last nine games. Now to be fair, the Sasquatch don't really have a signature win among the 11 victories so far. They've beaten up on Bellevue twice, and have blown the doors off Edmonds and S. Puget Sound, but — as was mentioned in Spokane's ranking last week — their signature seems to be defense. Even in the NWAC contests they've lost, they manage to hold the opposition far, far below their usual offensive output and keep themselves within striking distance. Example: The Sasquatch held No. 2 Clackamas 15 points below their average, and lost by only five. They also kept up with North Idaho, who has gone 5-1 against NWAC teams so far. Defense and slower-paced but efficient teams have a tendency to do very, very well at the tournament. Look for Spokane to challenge for a region title. Maybe.

                                                                                                                         

4. Umpqua (12-2, 0-0 South)
Previous ranking: No. 1, No. 1 Coaches
Pace: 68 | Offensive Efficiency: 79.06 (80)
Coaches: No. 1

It feels bad to drop the top-ranked team in the league by four spots after only three games, but let's take into consideration what those three games showed us. Disclaimer: You might want to pop a dramamine (that's for motion sickness, for the un-traveling-folk), as this ride is about to get bumpy. Sunday night, Umpqua thumps unranked Yakima Valley by 34 points [box] on Dec. 28. They then turn around and get absolutely rolled by Snow College — and by 39 points at 91-52 [box]. And since the weekend couldn't get any crazier, Umpqua finished things off with a 75-71 [box] win over North Idaho College, handing the Cardinals their first lost to an NWAC team all season long. As impressive as the win over North Idaho is — it's something few, if any, NWAC teams do in a typical season — the blowout loss to Snow College more or less rests on three things: Snow had 18 steals, a +18 edge in points off turnovers and a 28-9 edge in turnover margin. Translation: Pressure the ball at the top of the three-point line, and Umpqua will have trouble catching the runner before they reach the basket. It seems to be the only way to stop such an efficient offense, which is a good reminder that running isn't always the best way to score points.

                                                                                                                         



5. Wenatchee Valley (9-4, 0-0 East)
Previous ranking: Unranked, Unranked Coaches
Pace: 66 | Offensive Efficiency: 71.69 (71)
Coaches: No. 4

Four wins in a row will often give teams a big bump, but it's rare that a team garners a bigger bump than Wenatchee Valley picked up this last week. And to call the Knight's 96-77 thrashing of former No. 5 Lane [box] a "bump" is on par with referring to the Ducks woodshedding of Florida State as a game that "could have gone either way." Nobody does  that to Lane. Nobody. And the impressive part about it is that Lane actually played a decent game. They shot above average, and committed fewer turnovers, but simply couldn't slow down a red-hot Wenatchee offense that shot 15% above their average — and 61.3% from inside the arc. The Knights aren't normally a team who pounds the ball inside, as they're in the top quarter of the league in three-pointers taken, but the opposite approach worked against one of the traditionally better defensive teams in the NWAC. Comfortable wins over Mt. Hood and Chemeketa are great, but a blowout of Lane and a 38-point win [box] over Edmonds? Boom goes the dynamite.

                                                                                                                         

6. Lane (13-3, 0-0 South) 
Previous ranking: No. 5, No. 2 Coaches
Pace: 69 | Offensive Efficiency: 74.37 (77)
Coaches: No. 5

If you've actually read through the first five rankings (that's how this whole thing works, you know), you've already caught up on the Titans' ugly loss [box] to then-unranked Wenatchee Valley a few days ago. Lane hasn't had their doors unhinged by 19 points in a while, it doesn't happen often and at the end of the day, Lane is still 13-3 and sits just behind No. 4 Umpqua for second in the heavyweight Southern Region. Also, they took Columbia Basin behind the woodshed shortly before the Wenatchee game and beat the Hawks by 20 while only making five three pointers [box]. Their wins over CBC and Peninsula, and a close game with previous No. 1 Umpqua show a boatload of potential, especially if the Titans can continue to bring down their turnover percentage. During the last three games, they've average 18.6 miscues — which is down from their season average of 21. However, there's another huge challenge ahead of them: How will Lane contend with one of the highest-paced teams in the league when they host No. 2 Clackamas on Jan. 10?

                                                                                                                         

7. Treasure Valley (8-6, 0-0 East)
Previous ranking: No. 4, Unranked Coaches
Pace: 65 | Offensive Efficiency: 73.03 (71)
Coaches: No. 6

I feel a little guilty dropping Treasure Valley when they haven't lost to an NWAC team since falling to No. 1 Centralia on Nov. 21, especially since they recently went on a six-game winning streak. The thing is, and I'll go ahead and discount it by saying it was to a non-NWAC team and on a trip to Salt Lake City to face the 14-4 Salt Lake CC Bruins, but Treasure Valley got walloped by 39 points [box] in their first game at the Salt Lake tournament. The second game wasn't as bad — only 20 points [box] — but in a sport where momentum and confidence means an awful lot, the Chuckars will have to pick up the pieces in a darned hurry. Columbia Basin looms as the first opponent of the region schedule, and though the Hawks (8-6) aren't what they used to be, playing in Pasco has traditionally been one of the more difficult places to play over the past decade. Oh yeah, and then Treasure Valley travels to No. 3 Spokane. Talk about a trial by fire.


                                                                                                                         

8. Walla Walla (9-3, 0-0 East)
Previous ranking: No. 7, Unranked Coaches
Pace: 60 | Offensive Efficiency: 77.05 (69)
Coaches: No. 7

Walla Walla coach Bobbi Hazeltine liked last week's efficiency chart enough that the Warriors used it during one of their film sessions. My guess is because Walla Walla is one of the best in the league in terms of efficiency and points per possession at 1.15 — which has the Warriors tied for fourth behind Clark, Umpqua and Clackamas. And while Umpqua and Clackamas play at quick paces relative to the rest of the league, both Clark and Walla Walla play at around 60 possessions per game. The difference is at the free-throw line. Walla Walla is one of the best in the league at 72%, but they simply don't get there very often. Instead of doing their scoring from the charity stripe like Clackamas, the Warriors accomplish nearly the same per-possession scoring clip by consistently having one of the best shooting percentages in the league. Their respectable 1.15 point average isn't bolstered by easy three-point shooting, fast-break buckets or freebies: it's simply solid offense.